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Can’t Build Them? Join Them: Rising Home Prices & Lack of Construction
There’s a tug of war brewing between housing costs and consumer budgets in the US. Single-family home prices have risen[…]
Nothing to See Here: Rising 10-Year Treasury Yields in Context
While the recent backup in 10-year Treasury yields may look stark on short-term charts (namely 1-year and 2-year charts), the[…]
Is Foreign Demand for US Corporate Bonds at an Inflection Point?
The US corporate bond market reached a record $8 trillion at the end of 2017. The high followed a wave[…]
Three Strategies to Prepare for Rising Volatility
We all knew volatility couldn’t stay low forever, even with solid global growth and low inflation. Rising volatility is common[…]
How the Spike in Volatility Punctured the “Short Vol” Trade
For most investors, it’s pretty unsettling to hear that the market’s “fear gauge” is suddenly on a tear. But that’s[…]
Don’t Cry for the Argentine Peso
The Argentine peso has depreciated by more than 40% since 2015, but I believe it is due for stabilization and[…]
Avoid Being “Burned” by Bank Loans
When talking with potential investors, a refrain we often hear is “I was burned by bank loans before, and now[…]
Oil Price Volatility: Are We Out of the Woods Yet?
What’s my advice on oil price volatility? Hang in there. The good news—we’ve been through this before. The bad news—we’ve[…]
Commodity and Emerging Market Performance – Is This Divergence Sustainable?
Emerging market (EM) assets were hit hard by the crash in commodity prices in 2014-2015, but so far this year,[…]
US Housing: Prices Driven Up By Limited Construction & Strong Demand
Single family construction presents a puzzle: with the economy in the seventh year of expansion, why has home construction remained[…]
Oil Outlook for the Remainder of 2016
I believe oil prices will likely remain under pressure through the end of the year. There has been exceptional growth[…]
China: Rising Risks Posed by Shadow Banking
Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), which typically operate with less regulatory oversight compared to banks, have existed in China for decades.
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