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Perspectives: Fed Funds Futures vs. Wall Street (Video)
Current estimates show a significant gap between the rate expectations of Wall Street economists and the Fed funds futures markets.[…]
Will Banks Beat the Stock Market? (Video)
Ten years after the financial crisis, the return on equity of US banks is still 30% below pre-crisis levels. In[…]
Finally, Fed Hikes Rates: Our Reaction to the Second Increase Since 2006
It wasn’t much of a surprise that the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate increase today – its[…]
What Will the Fed’s Balance Sheet Changes Mean for Agency MBS?
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been grabbing headlines recently, and with good reason: the Fed’s three massive bond buying[…]
Jerome Powell Nominated for Fed Chair: Our Reaction
The Trump administration announced Jerome Powell as its choice for Federal Reserve Chair on November 2. The following are some[…]
The Donald and the Dollar
From Election Day in November through the end of 2016, financial markets embraced the “Trump Trade,” pricing higher equities, higher[…]
Turkish Referendum: Local Markets Rally, But For How Long?
So far, the market’s reaction to Turkey’s historic referendum on the adoption of a national presidential system on April 16[…]
Turkey’s Back in the Headlines: What This Could Mean for Turkish Banks
With the latest crisis in Turkey, Turkish equities have come under pressure and Turkish bank stocks are looking cheap. Do[…]
Don’t be Fooled by the Rally: Turkey Remains Under Pressure
The crisis in Turkey is rapidly evolving, with new developments emerging every day. Turkish assets sold off significantly from August[…]
Friday Fact: US-China Trade Data Measures the Damage
The fact that US trade with China has declined shouldn’t be a surprise. But how bad is the damage? The[…]
Inching Toward a Deal: What’s Next in the US-China Trade Negotiations
The US and China surprised me with their announcement of a small, “phase one” trade deal last week. Here’s a[…]
US Midterm Elections: The Base Case Scenario and Its Implications
The national midterm elections are tomorrow. As of this morning, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website is giving the Democrats an 85.6%[…]
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