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What’s Holding Back Employment in the United States?
Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at the pandemic’s lingering effect on employment and shares his outlook for the months ahead.
Be Cautious About Upcoming Data
We are entering a period when data may be on a wild ride. Brian Horrigan shares why he thinks market[…]
Fiscal Policy: Veering Left and Moving Fast
Congressional leaders are aiming to pass a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package by mid-March. This approach is not without risks.
Can The US Consumer Stay Healthy This Winter?
A K-shaped recovery is an uneven one in which some industries and some groups get left behind. That is what[…]
Key Changes Shaping a New Path for China’s Recovery
Many market participants expect major economies to follow a path to recovery similar to China’s, but we see three key[…]
US Consumers Appearing Less Confident
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index suggests that consumers are not feeling optimistic. Could this mean the US recovery is[…]
Credit Repair: What’s Different This Time?
As we enter credit repair, we are wary of using the GFC as a benchmark for the path to recovery.[…]
Maybe Inflation Didn’t Ease: A Look at Trimmed-Mean Inflation
Core PCE inflation year over year eased from a recent high of 2.04% last July to 1.55% in March. This[…]
FOMC September Decision: Setting Up a Hike
To almost no one’s surprise, the FOMC changed no policy rates, and it kept its policy concerning its balance sheet[…]
Data Consistent with Another US Mini-Cycle
In our view, indicators suggest the economy is in the downturn phase of a mini-cycle—a period of slower economic growth[…]
Fed Watch: Things Could Get Interesting
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is set to release its press statement on December 19. I will be watching[…]
Fed Watch: All Eyes on Yellen
This week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be anything but boring. The Federal Reserve seems eager to[…]
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