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Don’t be Fooled by the Rally: Turkey Remains Under Pressure
The crisis in Turkey is rapidly evolving, with new developments emerging every day. Turkish assets sold off significantly from August[…]
Friday Fact: US-China Trade Data Measures the Damage
The fact that US trade with China has declined shouldn’t be a surprise. But how bad is the damage? The[…]
Inching Toward a Deal: What’s Next in the US-China Trade Negotiations
The US and China surprised me with their announcement of a small, “phase one” trade deal last week. Here’s a[…]
US Midterm Elections: The Base Case Scenario and Its Implications
The national midterm elections are tomorrow. As of this morning, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website is giving the Democrats an 85.6%[…]
Dutch Election Results: What Do They Mean for France?
Global markets breathed a collective sigh of relief last week when it became clear that Geert Wilders’ anti-European Party for[…]
Italian Elections: The Political Climate Heats Up
Markets breathed a sigh of relief as centrist Emmanuel Macron won the French presidency on Sunday, May 7. Despite the[…]
A Trump White House: Potential Market Impacts of the US Election
Donald Trump's presidential upset has stunned financial markets, which had heavily discounted a Clinton victory. What might Trump's policy proposals[…]
Britain’s Vote for Brexit: Initial Thoughts
The UK referendum on European Union membership saw 51.9% of voters favor leave, surprising a market that had become confident[…]
Brexit’s Impact on Global Markets
Negotiations post-Brexit will be noisy and prolonged over one to two years, which creates fertile ground for tumultuous swings in[…]
Brexit: The Key Ingredients and What Could Go Wrong
There has been a lot of drama as the UK approaches the expiration of Article 50 (Brexit) in March 2019.[…]
A Better Path Toward Brexit After UK Conservatives Fall Short
UK politics are not stable after last week’s general election. When Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election[…]
Global GDP Themes and Forecasts (Infographic)
Global economic activity indicators are signaling that the manufacturing-driven slowdown has not yet run its course. However, we remain optimistic[…]
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