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Economic & Cycle Views
Suppose They Gave a Recession
July 20, 2022•6 min read

Suppose They Gave a Recession, and Nobody Came

The business press sometimes likes to say that a recession is a decline of real GDP lasting at least two[…]
Alpha Engine Perspectives
Reading the Housing Sector: The Good
July 18, 2022•4 min read

Reading the Housing Sector: The Good, the Bad and the Surprising

We think the housing sector should hold steady with good structural trends, a potentially bad environment for housing bargains and[…]
Alpha Engine Perspectives
Taking the Consumer’s Temperature
June 30, 2022•3 min read

Taking the Consumer’s Temperature

With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas shares her assessment of the US consumer.

Structured Finance
Economic & Cycle Views
Playing Catch-Up: Takeaways from the June FOMC Meeting
June 17, 2022•3 min read

Playing Catch-Up: Takeaways from the June FOMC Meeting

It appears the Fed has realized it is behind the curve. We believe the door is open for another 75-bp[…]
Alpha Engine Perspectives
The Yield Curve as a Recession Signal: Take It Seriously
April 12, 2022•4 min read

The Yield Curve as a Recession Signal: Take It Seriously, but Not Literally

Though we are wary of suggesting that “it’s different this time,” we see reasons to believe the most recent yield[…]

Relative Return
Economic & Cycle Views
Shake
November 1, 2021•2 min read

Shake, Rattle and Roll: Is the Growth/Inflation Dance Out of Step?

Chief Economist Brian Horrigan shares his latest thoughts on current growth and inflation dynamics.
Alpha Engine Perspectives
Three Reasons the Fed May Deliver a More Aggressive Tightening Cycle
October 29, 2021•5 min read

Three Reasons the Fed May Deliver a More Aggressive Tightening Cycle

Michael Gladchun shares why he thinks this cycle has three distinctive features that could propel a faster pace and greater[…]

Relative Return
Economic & Cycle Views
What’s Holding Back Employment in the United States?
August 18, 2021•3 min read

What’s Holding Back Employment in the United States?

Chief Economist Brian Horrigan looks at the pandemic’s lingering effect on employment and shares his outlook for the months ahead.
Economic & Cycle Views
Be Cautious About Upcoming Data
March 18, 2021•3 min read

Be Cautious About Upcoming Data

We are entering a period when data may be on a wild ride. Brian Horrigan shares why he thinks market[…]
Economic & Cycle Views
Fiscal Policy: Veering Left and Moving Fast
February 22, 2021•4 min read

Fiscal Policy: Veering Left and Moving Fast

Congressional leaders are aiming to pass a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package by mid-March. This approach is not without risks.
Alpha Engine Perspectives
Can The US Consumer Stay Healthy This Winter?
December 23, 2020•4 min read

Can The US Consumer Stay Healthy This Winter?

A K-shaped recovery is an uneven one in which some industries and some groups get left behind. That is what[…]

Structured Finance
Economic & Cycle Views
Key Changes Shaping a New Path for China’s Recovery
December 14, 2020•3 min read

Key Changes Shaping a New Path for China’s Recovery

Many market participants expect major economies to follow a path to recovery similar to China’s, but we see three key[…]

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