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Energy and the US Economy: A Story in Five Charts
Structural changes mean the US economy is less vulnerable to an energy shock than it was in the past, but[…]
Goodbye, IEEPA Tariffs. What’s Next?
The end of IEEPA tariffs struck a major blow to the Trump administration’s trade and fiscal policy, but it doesn’t[…]
Downgrading US Debt; Upgrading Fiscal Anxiety
Chief Economist Brian Horrigan discusses the impact of Moody's downgrade of US Treasury debt and compares the circumstances with prior[…]
Deficits, Taxes and Trade: A Presidential Policy Breakdown
Chief Economist Brian Horrigan reviews the presidential candidates' policy proposals. Read on to learn about the implications for fiscal spending,[…]
US Elections 101: The Electoral College Explained
While there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election, the process will remain[…]
A Mysterious Employment Report: Reconciling Contradictory Messages
Chief Economist Brian Horrigan explains why he expects mean reversion after a conflicting employment report in May.
Fitch Downgrades US Treasurys: A Tale of Debt and Dysfunction
Fitch Ratings has downgraded the long-term rating of US Treasurys from AAA to AA+. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan shares his[…]
Debt Ceiling Drama: We’re in for a Nail-Biter
Markets will likely get increasingly unsettled as the X-date approaches without resolution. Congress has about four weeks to hatch a[…]
Fed Mad Libs: Diction & A Dovish Tilt
Markets tend to pay close attention to what the Fed says (or doesn’t). Chief Economist Brian Horrigan breaks down some[…]
We Are Here: Thinking about Recession Risk
The US has had 12 recessions since 1945. Chief Economist Brian Horrigan contemplates the potential for unlucky #13.
Market Risk and Midterm Elections: Eyes on the Senate
Does it matter who wins the Senate? It matters a great deal. Read our latest blog regarding midterm elections.
Suppose They Gave a Recession, and Nobody Came
The business press sometimes likes to say that a recession is a decline of real GDP lasting at least two[…]
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